🔍 Why This Bet Offers Value

• Liverpool’s Scoring at Anfield: Liverpool have been an offensive juggernaut at home. They’re averaging about 2.5 goals per game at Anfield in the league, with Mohamed Salah, Darwin Núñez, and Luis Díaz all in scoring form. Liverpool often press high and create a flurry of chances, especially against teams outside the top six.
• West Ham’s Upside & Vulnerability: The Hammers possess attacking threats like Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (or Danny Ings) who can capitalize on Liverpool’s occasionally high line. West Ham have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches. However, their defense has been leaky, with only 2 clean sheets in the last 10 – meaning they often find themselves in shootouts.
• Historic Fixture Trend: Liverpool vs West Ham has a history of goals. In fact, their Premier League meetings have seen 3 or more goals in 6 of the last 8 encounters. Last season at Anfield, Liverpool edged West Ham 2-1 in a game that could easily have had more goals. West Ham’s proactive approach under David Moyes in recent seasons means they don’t just sit back – which opens up the game.
• Set-Piece Factor: Both teams are strong on set plays. West Ham, in particular, score a good chunk of goals from corners and free-kicks (think Tomas Souček headers). Liverpool’s attacking set pieces (with Trent Alexander-Arnold’s delivery) also add to goal potential. Set-piece goals can be a big contributor to hitting the over.

⚔️ Tactical & Player Matchups

• Liverpool Attack vs West Ham Defense: Liverpool will deploy their 4-3-3, with Salah cutting inside from the right and Núñez’s movement central. West Ham’s back line (likely Zouma and Aguerd) will have trouble containing the speed and interchange of Liverpool’s front three. Andrew Robertson’s overlapping runs could overwhelm West Ham’s right flank, generating scoring chances.
• West Ham on the Counter: West Ham will look to a compact 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 and try to spring counters. Declan Rice (if still with the team) or his replacement will win the ball and launch forward quickly. Jarrod Bowen’s pace against Liverpool’s aggressive fullbacks is a key matchup – Bowen scored at Anfield in the past and can trouble Liverpool’s defense again.
• Midfield Battle: Liverpool’s midfield (perhaps Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, and Fabinho-type player) is more technical but can be bypassed in transitions. West Ham’s midfielders – Lucas Paquetá’s creativity and Souček’s runs – can contribute to chances. Expect Liverpool to dominate possession, but West Ham will have spells and set pieces to exploit.
• Defensive Line Issues: Liverpool’s high defensive line has been caught out multiple times this season. Antonio’s physicality and Bowen’s runs in behind present real threat – this dynamic often forces chaotic, end-to-end sequences (good for goal totals). Conversely, if West Ham push up for a goal, Liverpool’s forwards thrive on the extra space to add more goals.

📈 Recent Trends & Form

• Liverpool Form: The Reds are unbeaten in their last 8 league games, with five wins on the trot. They’ve scored 18 goals in those 8 matches. However, defensive clean sheets have been rare – Liverpool conceded in 6 of those 8 games. Recent scorelines include 3-1, 2-1, 4-2 – all above the 2.5 mark.
• West Ham Form: West Ham have been unpredictable but generally involved in high-scoring games. In their last 5 away matches, 4 have seen at least 3 goals. They’ve netted in each of their last 6 matches, including a 2-2 draw at Newcastle and a 3-1 win at a lower-table side. Their form shows they can both score and concede freely.
• Head-to-Head at Anfield: Liverpool has dominated results (unbeaten in Premier League home games vs West Ham since 2015), but West Ham usually manages a goal. The fixture at Anfield in recent years: 2-1 (2022), 3-2 (2021), 3-2 (2020)… all high scoring and clearing over 2.5 comfortably.
• Goal Contributors: Salah has 20+ goals this season; he’s scored in each of the last 3 meetings with West Ham. For the Hammers, Bowen has 10 league goals and tends to shine in big games. These consistent goal contributors further tilt toward an over, as both teams have reliable scoring outlets.

🧠 Betting Insight

• Public vs Sharp Angle: Public bettors love goals in Liverpool games given their reputation – sometimes inflating the price. Sharps agree the over is justified here: Liverpool’s attack vs a mid-table defense is a recipe for multiple goals. Additionally, West Ham’s decent scoring form means they could help push the total over, even if Liverpool cover it themselves.
• Anfield Factor: At Anfield, Liverpool often start fast to energize the crowd. An early Liverpool goal is likely to open the game as West Ham will then chase the equalizer. Live bettors often look for an early goal to then possibly even take an in-play over 3.5. Pre-match, the expectation of an open game is already baked in.
• West Ham’s Approach: David Moyes knows sitting back for 90 minutes rarely works at Anfield. West Ham have been more adventurous this season, and bettors note that in games where West Ham try to play (rather than pure park-the-bus), their matches see more goals. The odds on over 2.5 reflect this expectation.
• Fixture Congestion: Liverpool might have had a midweek European game, but Jurgen Klopp still tends to field a strong XI in the league. Some rotation could mean a slightly less cohesive defense, which sharps actually don’t mind for an over bet.

🚩 Risks to Consider

• If West Ham Park the Bus: There’s a risk West Ham could revert to a very defensive shell, aiming to frustrate Liverpool. If they successfully bunker down, it might stay 1-0 or 2-0. Moyes has employed this tactic at Anfield before (albeit usually still conceding).
• Wasteful Finishing or Heroic Keeping: Liverpool could create a dozen chances but if Alphonse Areola/Lukasz Fabianski (WHU keeper) has a blinder or Liverpool’s finishing is off, goals may not flow. A scenario of Liverpool 2-0 with missed opportunities could leave the total just under.
• Liverpool Defensive Clinic: On the off chance Liverpool actually keep a rare clean sheet and then throttle down the pace, it could end 2-0. Liverpool have the capability to control possession and see out games professionally, especially if they have a crunch match ahead – this would hurt an over bet.
• Early Red Card: A red card to either side can sometimes kill a totals bet. If West Ham go down to 10 men early, they might park even more; if Liverpool get a red, they might become cautious and the game state changes unexpectedly.

🔒 Recommended Bet

Over 2.5 Goals at 1.60. Liverpool’s home games are reliably high-scoring, and West Ham have enough attacking quality to both contribute and force Liverpool to keep scoring. A 3-1 Liverpool victory or similar is on the cards, making the over 2.5 a solid play.